Estimating Market for Mini-Muffin Cookie

US Cookie Manufacturing Industry 
Cookie Manufacturing Industry makes cookies from purchased ingredients, such as flour, sugar, salt, seasoning, emulsifiers, flavorings, syrups, preservatives, gluten and food acids. And then package the final products to distribution channels. Popular cookies flavors include chocolate chip, oatmeal, crème-filled, and sandwich varieties. Other products classified with cookies include toaster pastries, ice cream cones, and wafers for ice cream sandwiches.

In the US market, there are two trends that should be highlight. First, reflected by the changing composition and fast pace in workplace, there is a dominant influence that more working couples per households have much less time to prepare for food than before, especially for young working couples. However, consumers are becoming more health-conscious as they start to pay attention to labels on packaging and looking for less-sugar added cookies. 

Second, children used to be the leading force in cookie consuming market. Yet, the average number of children per US household is predicted to be decreasing in the next decade, which would limit demand for cookies.

1.   Potential Demand

Demand is driven by population growth, consumer tastes, and health considerations. Our potential market can be everyone who would like to pay a relatively high price for high quality cookies. Domestically, on one hand, B2C world includes adults without children; adults with children; or even the kids themselves. On the other hand, B2B world include grocery wholesalers, supermarkets, convenience stores, specialty food stores, food service contractors, or hospitality industries. In long run, we also look for export opportunity outside US and expend business into international markets.

2.   Addressable Market

The barriers to entry in this industry are relatively low and competition are high. The biggest threat facing our new entrants is the dominant position of the industry's major players. Thus, compare with them, we might be weak compete in B2B market, that we decided to pivot the potential demand to B2C market at first, and look for further business opportunities after expansion. Regionally, we would narrow down and focus on domestic US market only. Moreover, instead of children, adults with steady income level but may have to adapt to the fast moving working pace would be our target. 

3.  Realistic Opportunities VS Competition

The US cookie manufacturing industry includes about 300 companies with combined annual revenue of about $11 billion. The industry is highly concentrated: the top 50 companies account for more than 90 percent of industry revenue. Major companies include Kraft's Foods Inc., Kellogg's US Snacks Division, Campbell Soup's Pepperidge Farms unit, Snyder's-Lance, Interbake Foods, and Otis Spunkmeyer.
Large companies have advantages in purchasing, distribution, and marketing, while small start-ups, just like our Mini-Muffin Company, may get more opportunities by providing high-end cookies and high quality cookies to differentiate ourselves. In addition, based on the industry trend, as a new entrants, we may differentiate our products and innovate through specializing in frozen, pre-prepared bakery products, cakes and pastries can be huge.

4.  Targeted selection of "Winnable" market opportunities

      Taking all these factors into consideration, we decided to narrow down and set up from some business within major cities of Massachusetts, taking advantage of the local strength of our management team, where we have a familiar knowledge about the distributors, and reliable business partners here. Our target market would be adults in their 35-50, with higher education level, and relative stable household revenue per year. These customers have clear conscious to live in a healthy life, but don’t always have enough time to cook desert after diner. Our Mini-Muffin Cookie Doug will provide you right the choice of time-saving baking cookie with delicious home-made flavor.